Consider This

1. The modern conservative movement began with the crushing defeat of Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater in the 1964 presidential race. The modern conservative movement ends with the crushing defeat of Arizona Sen. John McCain -- who took Goldwater's Senate seat upon his retirement -- in the 2008 presidential race. 2. Modern liberalism began its implosion with riots in Chicago's Grant Park at the 1968 Democratic Convention. Tonight, modern liberalism is reborn at Chicago's Grant Park, where a black Chicago Democrat will celebrate winning the presidency.

Source.

Hello, Chicago

In case you missed it.

Change Gone Come

Yes, it will.

It Was Over 30 Minutes Ago

But I was too busy to notice.

10:17 PM ... Here are the numbers to consider. At present, with the called states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Mexico, Obama has 202 electoral votes. If Obama wins California, Oregon and Washington, which have never really been in doubt, he moves to 275. And he wins the presidency.

Okay, I was making chicken curry.

Ohio!

They're calling it for Obama, making it a no-brainer now, but still fun to watch.
By the way, I'd like to remind you all that Contrarienne called 40 people in Ohio last night.

Meanwhile

In my part of the world:

About 1:30 pm. the ferryboat, MV Coho, arrived from Victoria, BC just a couple of blocks from where we stood.  RVs and other vehicles poured off the boat and up the street towards us.  Then came six adults carrying rolls of heavy paper in their arms.  They parked their wheeled suitcases near our corner, unrolled their signs, and stepped forward with outreached hands for a handshake and introduction.  We couldn't believe it!!!  These folks had come all the way from Victoria, BC. with their homemade signs to "stand with us".  What a feeling of inspiration and support they gave us.
Their signs said:  "Canada loves Obama", "Victori-us for Obama",  "Canucks 4 Obama".  One lady said "We need America to once again lead by example".  My reply was "And we need Canada".

I Didn't Vote Black, I Voted Irish

From Andrew,

Supporters of US Democratic presidential candidate and Illinois Senator Barack Obama drink as they watch election results from Ollies Hayes Pub on November 4, 2008 in Moneygall, Co Limerick, in Ireland. Historians have unearthed records showing Obama's maternal ancestors lived, worked, married and had children in the Moneygall area more than 150 years ago. Fulmuth Kearney, who is Obama's third great-grandfather, left Moneygall for New York in 1850 to eventually settle in Ohio

Vigo Co, IND. Who Knew?

From TPM:

Democrats are cheered by early numbers showing that Obama holds a healthy lead in Vigo County, a place that one Dem described to us as "the most reliable bellwether county in the country."
"Vigo has only been wrong on president twice since 1892," this Dem enthuses.
A story in the Indy Star concurs, adding that of the most reliable bellwhether counties in the country, Vego "has voted closest to the national margin."
Right now, in Vigo County, Obama is up 57%-42%, with 80% reporting.
More numbers coming.

Exit Polls Are Crap II

That said: (NPR reporting glum GOP in Ohio, where polls just closed)

The head to head exit polls just were sent to the Huffington Post by a Democratic source. These are traditionally unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt (see: Kerry's winning margins in 2004). For what it's worth, they project a big night for Obama in several of the key swing states.
The states looking good for Obama:
Florida: 52 percent to 44 percent
Iowa: 52 percent to 48 percent
Missouri: 52 percent to 48 percent
North Carolina: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Hampshire: 57 percent to 43 percent
Nevada: 55 percent to 45 percent
Pennsylvania: 57 percent to 42 percent
Ohio: 54 percent to 45 percent
Wisconsin: 58 percent to 42 percent
Indiana: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Mexico: 56 percent to 43 percent
Minnesota: 60 percent to 39 percent
Michigan: 60 percent to 39 percent
The states where McCain is leading in exit polls:
Georgia: 51 percent to 47 percent
West Virginia: 45 percent to 55 percent
Again, as a point of caution, here is what Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said about exit polls in an interview today with the Huffington Post: "The biggest problem with exit polls is... we do know that young voters are much more likely to do an exit survey and seniors are much less likely to do an exit poll," he said. "So exit polls are heavily waited to young people, which normal bias favors Democrats especially this year."

More here. Remember it's all crap.

And in Other News

At least the NYT hasn't cut staff so badly that no one noticed. This is a very big get for us, I think.

Over the objections of the nation’s television broadcasters and other groups, Federal regulators on Tuesday set aside a disputed slice of radio spectrum for public use, hoping it will lead to low-cost, high-speed Internet access and new wireless devices.

Where Are You Tonight?

The elite, librul, mainstream media is out to PAHTY!

Jim Newell, Wonkette: "I will be at home furiously typing about various "numbers" as they come in, state-by-state, for 500 hours, until I am forced from my home by the race riots. CAN YOU FEEL THE HOPE?"

GULP!

Indiana closes in 24 minutes! And Kentucky.

Exit Polls Are Crap

Use at your own risk.

...to summarize: exit polls have a much larger margin of error than regular polls, they tend to skew to the Democratic candidate, they proved to be really bad predictors this year, they actually miss a ton of voters, and, ultimately, they can never be reliably sourced. (Believe it or not, I ran across a website yesterday that purported to have exit poll data!)
So, if you must indulge in exit polling data, feel free. Accept it as another part of the election scenery, and do not put a lot of stock -- or pin too many of your hopes -- to these results. I cannot caveat this emptor enough, people.

Nate Says It's Over, So That's, Er, Official

It will be fun to compare once the returns start rolling in. OMG, less than 3 hours!

Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.

We also project Obama to win the popular vote by 6.1 points; his lead is slightly larger than that in the polls now, but our model accounts for the fact that candidates with large leads in the polls typically underperform their numbers by a small margin on Election Day.

This race appears to have stabilized as of about the time of the second debate in Nashville, Tennessee on October 8th.

Glory In The Day

If you feel like wallowing in the personal stories of Obama voters, go here.
Tidbit:

My polling place is at the fairgrounds in Southern Maryland, about 40 minutes from Washington, D.C. This used to be tobacco country, but is slowly being developed, or other crops are grown. We waited until 10:00 to vote, to avoid the lines. When we got there a 97-year-old Black man was being wheeled out of the polls in his wheelchair. It was the first time he had ever voted in his life. When he came outside he asked if anyone could give him an Obama button. There were none left at the Democrat's booth so I gave him mine. He was so proud and I started crying. He looked at me and said, "why are you crying? this is a day for glory." I am still crying.

Side note: Good thing the weather is pretty good across the country. With nearly all mail-in here for the last few years, and before that with permanent absentee, it's astounding that people have to stand in line for hours in bad weather just to vote.

Chill!

From the voter open thread at TPM:

I'm 60 miles west of Philly - Reading - Mt. Penn Borough.

We were 17th in line at 6:30. Voted at 7:05. By the time we left, a line of nearly 100 stretched down 25th Street.

Lots of youngsters.

Special Note: Upon exit, a well-tailored Obama "Observer" from NY state asked us if the machines were operating properly.

What a friggin ground game!!!

I only hope that Obama's crew has observers in states like VA, OH, FL.

Post O' Teh Day

Boyd Reed at TPM:

I have a confession to make.
I did not vote for Barack Obama today.

Worth a read. You might cry.

Hillary!

Election Day 2008

Washington, D.C.

Do The Right Thing

"You can always trust the Americans to do the right thing. After they've tried everything else."

Winston Churchill

History

By 6 p.m. PST

We will know the result.
Here's why:

If Obama wins North Carolina, expect him to romp to a huge victory as that would suggest that a number of closely contested red states go Democratic.

An Obama victory in Florida or Virginia would also be fatal to McCain. Victory in both augurs a landslide. If he loses both, it would suggest that the electoral map is reverting to form and we might be in for a long night.

John McCain can’t win unless he takes Pennsylvania, which should be a key early indicator. Because if Obama loses Pennsylvania, it’s hard to see him winning in places like North Carolina or Virginia anyway.

Everyone’s nerves are frayed at this point, but it’s hard to see how McCain wins; signs of the outcome should be abundantly clear by 9 P.M. EDT.

Close Race in Washington State?

That's what a KPLU reporter told me about the governor's race this morning, and that's what I would have believed based on old polls had I not seen the TPM rundown of the last polls. One had Gregoire up by six, another by nine.
The only reason we may not know the outcome right away is that King County's slo-o-ow machines won't have all the votes counted tonight and that county represents a third of the state vote.
By the way, the Sec. of State is predicting only an 83 percent turnout. I don't believe that. I think it will be much higher and may check out the registration numbers later today if I'm really bored.

Voter Suppression

Look, folks, I know there's lots of bad GOP behavior breaking out all over the country. It was to be expected, and it's fully documented by all the blogs I read, none of which believes it will be effective.
Remember, the Obama campaign figured on all this. They've got 4,000 lawyers in Florida alone and an excellent trouble reporting and response system in conjunction with a lot of other organizations.

What to Watch For Tuesday Night

From Politico

PUNDIT PREP — NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd on “Today” and why Virginia at 7 p.m. Eastern may tell the night’s story: “They count their vote pretty quickly — they’re a very efficient state, as far as that’s concerned. We probably will know by 8 o’clock ... 8:15 . And if we’ve called this race by 8 o’clock and it’s conforming to the public polls that we see now, and Obama’s got that by 8 o’clock, boy, suddenly the path’s going to get narrow and all of us are gonna start having to come up with different words to describe how the election’s going.

***“If we HAVEN’T called Virginia and it’s getting closer to 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, that could be a pretty good night for McCain.”

If O gets the Old Dominion, “We’re going to be watching just three states at that point — Florida, Ohio, North Carolina. Because if Obama’s got Virginia, all he needs is one more of that triangle. ... If he gets one of those three, then there’s no patch to 270 for John McCain.”

My Fellow Americans

I called 40 people near the town of Grand Rapids, Ohio, tonight to ask them if they'd voted, who they supported and let them know where their polling place was.
It was fun. One 87 year old lady was for Obama, some wouldn't say, so I know who they were for, one guy said he wasn't even sure he would vote, lots of young ones for Obama and one 74 year old asked me how much I was being paid. When I told her I was a volunteer, she told me to get a job. I told her I was retired and didn't need a job, and she said she just didn't know why anyone would do what I was doing. Love 'em all. My fellow Americans.

An Election Day Scorecard

I have no idea how accurate it is.

From Radical Center at 538, 10/9/08:
Even some of the media outlets have been letting go of the 'razor-thin-margin-too-close-to-call-statistical-dead-heat-anyone's-race' mantra and actually stating what those of us with polling data and a spreadsheet have been saying for weeks. It's not really that close people. It was the same way during the primaries - the storyline after Super Tuesday was always 'Obama leads by the narrowest of margins'. All a real journalist had to do is go to Wikipedia, copy their HTML chart into Excel, and play with numbers to find that the votes for Clinton just weren't there. Weren't for a long time.


PeteKent made me think of an 538-inspired project I worked on yesterday - an election night scorecard. (thanks PeteKent, now find a phonebooth and turn back into a rational non-koolaid-drinker)

These are the returns I am going to be interested in and when they come in:

Time State Electoral Votes
7:00 Indiana 11
7:00 Virginia 13
7:30 Ohio 20
8:00 Florida 27
8:00 Missouri 11
8:00 New Hampshire 4
8:30 North Carolina 15
9:00 Colorado 9
10:00 Nevada 5

By my way of thinking, McCain can only afford to lose NH or NV, but not both. My guess is by the poll closing times, the networks will not be able to call IN, VA, OH, FL, MO. Maybe they will call NH - we will see. If they call any of the first five for Obama, pop the corks, but I think the networks will be too cautious to do so until substatial numbers of returns come in.

Tomorrow Night: Watch For This

From Geo. St. via Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager:

Here are the six states to watch between 7pm and 8pm tomorrow night:



Virginia and Indiana after the last polls close at 7pm, Ohio and North Carolina after 7:30pm, and then Pennsylvania and Florida after 8pm.

These are the canaries in the coal mine.

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis conceded on "This Week" that John McCain has to win five out of six of these states to have a viable path to the presidency.

He could get there by holding all of the Bush states -- Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina -- and losing Pennsylvania, and then sacrificing Iowa and New Mexico.

But he will then need to secure Nevada and Colorado and all the rest of the Bush states later in the evening.

Nate Says

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com knows more than anybody about the numbers in this election. So tomorrow night, remember this:

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be "must-wins" for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it's pretty much over.

CT

Grizzled old bowlegged cowboy. I talked him into making a video for HBO's The Blacklist. but its initial show was really, really good with people like Toni Morrison and Chris Rock but they're soliciting submissions from ordinary folks and CT's on there. I've known him for 45 years.

Two Days Left

From One Dick To Another

What They Fought For

From EE's cousin Joyce, age 80

Namecalling 101

Grampy and Vampy.

Happy Halloween From The Beagles

Hockey Mom Against Sarah

Are Polls Tightening?

(As virtually everyone said they would)
Depends on what you look at, says Josh in his daily tutorial.

Action Item: Preserve Pubic Airwaves For Public Use

Go here to send your opinion to the FCC.

Colbert Endorses Obama

Why not, so many other conservatives are doing it.

Here's The Infomercial

In case you missed it.

Polls Mean Nothing Dept.

TPM is telling us the latest CNN polls in Bush states look so good for Obama that they're now predicting an Electoral College landslide. He's even cometitive in Arizona.

The House

From Josh, I am sooo bored. But it matters.
Did I link this already? Glogging while drinkingl.

Voter Suppression

TPM has a roundup. I can't bear to look. Today I talked to a woman whose son, a lawyer, registered to vote online in this state, Washington, and was told he wasn't registered when he arrived to drop off his absentee ballot. He had to go back a second day. Wassup!?

OMG! There's Another Contrarienne

and she's much better than I am. But then, she's also much older.

I will stop calling George Bush a jackass when he stops calling me a terrorist: Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.
I will stop calling John McCain an ass when he stops calling Barack Obama a socialist at every dog and pony show on the Straight Talk Express tour.
I will stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch when she stops calling Obama a terrorist sympathizer.  And I will stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch when she stops calling the parts of the country where I don’t live more Pro-American than the part of the country where I do live.    And I will definitely stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch when she stops acting like a bitch.

Okay, so maybe she doesn't exactly seem 82. So, maybe she's not real. Long live the Intertubes!

Socialists At The Gate

Quick, they're coming for your guns God daughters property money. And dogs and cats sleeping together!
Hertzberg at his best.

There hasn’t been so much talk of socialism in an American election since 1920, when Eugene Victor Debs, candidate of the Socialist Party, made his fifth run for President from a cell in the Atlanta Federal Penitentiary, where he was serving a ten-year sentence for opposing the First World War. (Debs got a million votes and was freed the following year by the new Republican President, Warren G. Harding, who immediately invited him to the White House for a friendly visit.)

So Socialistic

Jon Taplin reports on the newest income inequality numbers and remarks, "We cannot continue the fantasy that we are a first world nation if we have a wealth gap that looks like a second world oligarchy."

Palinized!

Wonderful site. Updated daily.

Other Campaigns

The Senate, from Josh

Polls Mean Nothing Dept.

Except when they do, of course. TPM did some battleground research and learned:

Obama is winning by sizable margins in Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin, all states Bush led in four years ago. He's winning by slimmer margins in Florida, Missouri, and Nevada, also states where Bush led.

Nine thousand people in the pouring rain today in Chester, PA

Quote O' Teh Day

From Virginia Heffernan at her NYT blog, on an entirely different topic.

There’s an excerpt from George Eliot’s “Middlemarch” currently posted on ads in some subway cars in New York; it perfectly expresses my squeamishness about perceiving the world too closely. “If we had a keen vision and feeling of all ordinary human life,” Eliot wrote, “it would be like hearing the grass grow and the squirrel’s heart beat, and we should die of that roar which lies on the other side of silence.”

This reminds me for some reason of the fairly recent discovery of the human canabanoid system, which produces THC-like substances to help us forget, else we would go mad from all the sensory input. (It's also there for childbirth.)

Into The Wild With Sarah

$10,000 No-Sex Contest Has, Surprise, No Takers

From Feministing via Dkos:

The contest is sponsored by the Marriage Appreciation Training Uplifting Relationship Education (MATURE) project in Georgia, a federally-funded abstinence program. The group is set to receive $455,510 a year until 2011; the money for the contest was to come from those funds. In an economic crisis, it's pretty awesome to see our federal dollars being so entirely wasted.

Obama has said he'll audit the federal budget with the intention of axing programs that don't work. Let's start here and let the Christianists cry as loud and long as they like.

Best Electoral Map O' Teh Season

The NYT has it and I especially like my state's "fed up with the whole mess, switched over to Canada" designation.

I Miss Bella

From Judith Warner in the NYT today:

In 1977, Bella Abzug, the former congresswoman and outspoken feminist, said, “Our struggle today is not to have a female Einstein get appointed as an assistant professor. It is for a woman schlemiel to get as quickly promoted as a male schlemiel.”
In other words: women will truly have arrived when the most mediocre among us will be able to do just as well as the most mediocre of men.
By this standard, the watershed event for women this year was not Hillary Clinton’s near ascendancy to the top of the Democratic ticket, but Sarah Palin’s nomination as the Republicans’ No. 2.

Eight Ways

To Survive the Next Eight Days Without Losing Your Frigging Mind

Meanwhile, Back in My Home State

Washington Gov. Christine Grlegoire (D) is pulling ahead of Dino Rossi in the last two polls. Whew! I hope this holds.

And in other good news for Gregoire, she's leading in the most recent Washington Poll, 51-45. The poll was conducted over six days, 10/18-26, which makes it a little questionable, but it's the second public poll of the race to suggest Gregoire is pulling away. Hopefully Dino's little brush with the legal system on Wednesday will finish him off.

Best Story Of The Campaign Season

From TPM:

Dozens Of Call Center Workers Walk Off Job In Protest Rather Than Read McCain Script Attacking Obama

Wow, Uncle Ted Goes Down

Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, the grandaddy of Alaskans'  corrupt tradition, was convicted today as guilty on all seven counts of making false statements on his financial disclosure forms. Guess he'll probably resign from the Senate and lose his bid fore re-election this year. Hope so, anyway.

NASCAR Dads For Obama

Junior Johnson, pretty good get.

Junior Johnson is one of the founding fathers of NASCAR.  Tom Wolfe's story, Kandy-Kolored Tangerine-Flake Streamlined Baby was about Junior.  He was a convicted Moonshiner and when they talk about how NASCAR grew from the high speed cars of the moonshine era, Junior is one of those guys.  He was also one of the biggest and best cheaters in NASCAR. Even late in his car owner career (early 90's) he got caught cheating with one of his cars and they suspended him for a month.  His wife ran the team for him until he came back. As a car owner in the sport, guys Like Darrel Waltrip and Bill Eliott drove for him.  As his legend has grown he has become rather beloved by the race fans. I never saw him race but I have watched him working the pits in Charlotte when he was still active in the sport. 

From this Kos diary.

Pick Up That Phone

I got these two emails today. They say they still need and want help. Think how good you'll feel if you put in a few hours for this historic campaign. Yeah, you get bragging rights, too. The Gore link puts you in touch with your closest campaign office, where they have phone banks. The True Majority trains you to do it from home, on Wednesday.

Dear
Elect Barack Obama

Sign up to make calls Wednesday to voters in North Dakota.





Talk about a history-making election -- how about turning North Dakota blue for the first time in *forty-four years*?

In a last-minute surprise, Obama and McCain are within single digits of each other there, with plenty of folks still undecided. And over 25% of the state is under the age of 30 - young voters who will support Sen. Obama if they get a reminder from YOU.

    CLICK HERE TO MAKE CALLS TO ELECT BARACK OBAMA

The Obama campaign pulled out of North Dakota weeks ago to focus on other states, but independent volunteers have soldiered on. Now if we can help pick up the slack a once-in-a-generation opportunity is within reach.

Join me and take two hours this Wednesday, October 29th, to talk to voters in the new swing state of North Dakota about why we need to elect Sen. Obama.

    CLICK HERE TO MAKE CALLS TO ELECT BARACK OBAMA


We'll begin with a quick training call at 6 PM Eastern if you're in the Eastern half of the country and 5:30 PM Pacific if you're in the West. Then, we'll start talking to these voters about Sen. Obama's plan to expand health care and restore the economy.

We're using a computer program that gets rid of most of the bad numbers so we can maximize the amount of time you spend actually talking to voters. All you need to do is sign up right now, and be ready Wednesday, October 29th, with a phone and computer.

Thanks for all you're doing,

-Matt

Matt Holland, Online Director
USAction Fund for a TrueMajority PAC
-----------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------



Dear MoveOn member,

I know something about what can happen in close elections. And we've only got 8 days left to make sure this isn't one of them.

We are witnessing history in the making. Millions of young people are getting involved in politics for the first time. A leader named Barack Obama is rising up to unite America behind his vision of progressive change. Yet we know from 2000 that progress is not inevitable. Victory can fall just out of reach. And the difference of a few thousand votes can put our country on a decidedly different path.

That's why I'm writing to you today to personally ask you to volunteer with the Obama campaign to help get out the vote this week. Everything we've worked for together hangs in the balance in these next few days. The Obama office in Silverdale still needs more volunteers and I'm hoping you can help. Click here to sign up:



I know that MoveOn members have the power to swing elections. In 2006, you made over 7 million calls—I made some myself—and together we won back both houses of Congress. And already this year, nearly 120,000 of you have signed up to volunteer for Obama in battleground states.

But the stakes this year are too great for any of us to sit it out.  We're facing two wars and an economic meltdown. The climate crisis, in particular, is worsening more quickly than predicted and without strong leadership from the next president, we could face consequences right out of a science fiction movie.

Barack Obama will provide that leadership. But only if we all make sure he wins. Please sign up to volunteer today.



Yes we can,

Al Gore

Want to support our work? We're entirely funded by our 4.2 million members—no corporate contributions, no big checks from CEOs. And our tiny staff ensures that small contributions go a long way. Chip in here.

For Us Sedentaries

Huffpo has a new weekly "give yourself a break" series that started with some very gentle and simple yoga moves to restore circulation and flexibility. The video is about five minutes. You can sign up for a weekly email reminder when a new one publishes.

Something New Every Day

One way corporations avoid taxes, from Jason Linkins' as usual stellar liveblog of the Sunday talking heads so we don't have to watch.

McCain says that American businesses pay high tax rates. One of his examples: "Ask John Chambers, CEO is Cisco," and he'll tell you that he pays 35%. KNOW WHAT JOHN MCCAIN? If you ask, here's what you'll find out (via Dan Ancona):

Cisco Systems, the second-most valuable company in America, paid no federal income taxes for its latest fiscal year thanks to a little-known corporate tax break on employee stock options.


Microsoft, which ranks No. 4 in market value, did not pay any federal taxes either, it seems.

Like many high-tech firms, Cisco and Microsoft are allowed to take a tax deduction for money their employees earn when they ``exercise'' options and buy stock in the company at a preset price.

These options have become an increasingly popular way for businesses to reward employees, but they also have huge benefits to the companies themselves.

The tax break was established decades ago, when companies doled out stock options to only a handful of top executives and the tax benefit they generated was minimal.

But now that many companies -- including Cisco, Microsoft and most other new-economy firms -- give options to everyone, the tax break is becoming enormous.

In Cisco's case, this benefit wiped out $1.8 billion in federal taxes, and probably more than twice that for Microsoft.

Some people, even those who oppose taxes, think it is unfair that wealthy companies paid none to Uncle Sam.

For the fiscal year ended July 31, Cisco had $23 billion in sales last year, $2.7 billion in net income, and its almost $400 billion market value is exceeded only by General Electric's.

``For a company that makes that kind of money not to pay taxes raises serious tax-equity questions,'' said Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers

Wassup 2008

Making the rounds this week in the 'sphere.



Original, 8 years ago.

Bailout Ch. 3

Likely to eventually cost about $2 tril, according to Krugman. But you kinda knew that, right?
Me, I'm still dealing with the credit default swap number of +$50 tril.

.

Names To Remember

Huffpo has the first speculave article I've seen about who's likely to be appointed to what in an Obama administration.

Two high-ranking Democrats in the House, Norm Dicks of Washington and George Miller of California, could be in the running for Secretary of the Interior; Miller has also been mentioned as a possible Education Secretary. Another politician with a shot at Interior is Former Alaska Governor Tony Knowles.

So, It's Not Black People's Fault?

Sullivan found this, but he's got interns. And a fulltime assistant.

If Obama's [44 percent] share holds, it would top the 43 percent of white voters who backed Bill Clinton in 1996, when the Democrat won a plurality among white females and 38 percent of white men, the best performance by a Democrat in all those categories since 1976.

The BIG Lie

A friend of mine at my old newspaper  sent me an email with the following "news";
in two years, we  have to entirely support our news, ad, IT and online staff with online revenue.

I used to think this kind of gigantic deceit was unique to the business I was in, because for 20 years I observed a continual repetition of setting wildly unrealistic goals, failure of those goals, ignoring the failures, setting of new wildly unrealistic goals, etc. Now, having spent more than 18 months deeply enmeshed in the political world, and to some extent, the economic world, of this country, I'm beginning to believe that our entire country is now built upon fantasy, lies and absurdity.
It's almost as if we live in a parallel universe now, with the rest of the world watching us as if there's a TV program called "American Survivor."

Polls Mean More Now

And Josh explains what he thinks of it all.

Bush Endorses McPalin

In case you missed it.

As Of Today

Polls Mean Nothing Dept.:

John McCain's chances of winning the election have dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday.

SNL Thursday

Tonight is the last night that Saturday Night Live has its special half-hour pre-election program. It's on at 9:30 on NBC and next week 30 Rock with the ineffable Tina Fey returns.
Shameless promotion, I do not get paid for this. Ever.

Song For Sarah

Halloween Ideas

Darcy Burner Needs Our Help

I sent her a small donation early on and just heard from her campaign that she needs more, but I'm tapped out. If any of you out there can help, here's what's going on with all necessary links.

'

Reichert/Burner Update

From the Seattlest:
Things are heating up in the 8th Congressional District race, which pits the incumbent, former King County Sheriff and Bush waterboy Dave Reichert against the challenger, retired Microsoft exec Darcy Burner. After losing the 2006 race, and trailing most of the 2008 campaign, Burner several polls have shown Burner surging to a lead in recent weeks. A SurveyUSA poll released Wednesday evening has Burner leading 50-46 after trailing by ten points a month ago.
So what do you do when you find yourself suddenly lagging with ballots already in your constituents' hands? Call in the local media! The Reichert campaign has received over $770k in television ads from KING, KOMO and KIRO, all unpaid and extended on credit which far exceeds Reichert's cash on hand, and according to the Burner campaign, constitutes an illegal contribution.

Conservatives For Change

Can Real Conservatism Be Saved?

Andrew's on a roll today:

I'm struck by how many in the press keep talking as if the conservative rebellion against Bush began three weeks ago. It began five years ago. And some of us stood up to him when it wasn't obvious his legacy would be political oblivion for the reasonable right.

Bonus quote from Christopher Buckley:

The smart ones in the movement should get together right after the election at the Greenbrier or the Homestead, you know, where they typically have these kinds of get-togethers, and have a long dark night of the soul. And I’ll tell you what the conference should be called: Conservatism–What the Fuck?

JFC (Credit Default Swaps) Feh (spits)

Bob Simon on NPR: Paraphrase
I ask everyone about this because it's just something that my mind can't grasp, that the total value of credit default swaps is more than $50 trillion (you heard that right), more than the value of the total world output in a year.

So the guy says well, if you do some fancy analysis he doesn't explain, it's really about 1 trillion, but in the end no one really knows.

Former SEC chairman Wm. Donaldson.

I have created a new "label" category in honor of this historic day. The category is JFC, Jesus Fucking Christ.

13 Days

As the election draws nearer — well, okay, the election always draws nearer but what I mean is as we tumble toward the end of this brutal process, events of note multiply and I can barely keep up, much rather get it all filtered well enough to make a personal judgment about what Contrariennes might like to hear about.

• For instance, in addition to the AP poll cited below, there are more than a half dozen new ones out there with all sorts of quirky results. Bottom line (I contend that phrase should be illegal, along with "awesome"):  things are looking better for Obama every day and McCain is looking more desperate every day.

• The R's just decided to pull all TV advertising for loony Michele Bachman in Minnesota either because she made such a fool of herself in calling for an investigation of all congress members to learn who is pro and who is anti-American, or because they're convinced she'll still win the right leaning Congressional district
• There is evidence that:

  The Real Subprime Crisis Culprit: Cows 

  • Pulling a Bullworth. Good God, I haven't heard that term and had entirely forgotten what was an incredible Warren Beatty vehicle. (Where is Warren? He's rich enough to make his own movies. Maybe he's just tired. But his sister, Shirley McLaine, just keeps going like that Energizer bunny.)
  •  
  • 
    
  •  
  • This has been an attempt at a comprehensive summary of the day. But I just can't do anymore. I'm exhausted.
  
  
  Love, julimac 

Namecalling 101

Gov. Sparkleburst

About This Socialism Crap

Conflicted conservative Andrew Sullivan harkens back to Adam Smith, the father of market capitalism, and muses:

I would prefer a candidate who would cut entitlements and defense to a candidate who raised taxes on the successful. But such a candidate is not running. 

But it's a short post with a lovely sketch of the bewigged gentleman and his position on taxation which, as the Comedy Central clip below shows, was also McCain's at one time.

Today's AP Poll

if you hear or read anything about it, and it's likely you will hear that there's only a 1-point spread between candidates, ignore it. Nate's got the goods on it here.
Most telling I thought was that their sample included 44 percent Evangelicals, when the actual turnout in 2004 was 23 percent.

Meanwhile, In Washington State

where I and many of Contrarienne's friends also reside, somebody's internals must show the Dave (I vote the way they tell me) Reichert/Darcy Burmer race closer than that latest polls show because the R's are putting their biggest bucks behind Reichert to get him a second term in the House.

National House Committees Shell Out Big Money, NRCC Finally In The Game
Both parties' national House committees shelled out big bucks in the newest federal filings. The DCCC spent nearly $4 million in yesterday's FEC filings, with the biggest expenditure going for $450,000 against Rep. Robin "Liberals Hate Real Americans" Hayes (R-NC). The NRCC, which has held on to its much smaller war chest until the home stretch of the campaign, spent $4.1 million, with the biggest payment going for over $450,000 to defend Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA).

McCain Was A Socialist, Too

I Got A Gal

in Kalamazoo. And my cousin's husband went to school there. And the story is written by someone named Julie Mack. I'm all shaky about this.

Snow and local election officials say most of the county's new voters are local college students, driving up numbers primarily in the city of Kalamazoo as well as in Kalamazoo and Oshtemo townships.
As of Monday, the city of Kalamazoo had 57,650 registered voters, up 13 percent from November 2004; Kalamazoo Township had 18,507, up 7.5 percent; and Oshtemo Township had 15,977, an increase of 12 percent.

That Red Leather Jacket Is Hawt!

The Republican National Committee has spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August.

According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74.

The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September.
From a Politico story.

Economic Crisis: The P Solution

Natalie Portman and Rashida Jones have it figured out. Make mine a Westie.

See more Natalie Portman videos at Funny or Die

Sedaris!

I did not find this shiny object. Andrew Sullivan did. But that's why I read them. So you don't have to.
re: undecided voters

To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. “Can I interest you in the chicken?” she asks. “Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?”

The Horserace II

Landslide, I tells yah! Pew agrees.

The Horserace

Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo explains today's status, and will do so daily through Nov. 4.

Innovation Lives

as Jon Taplin discovers, Google has a little gmail feature that tests you after midnight with a few math problems to make sure you don't send an email you could regret forever.

The Final Strategy

CNN Says the campaign's "risky strategy" is counting on Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and a comeback in Pennsylvania.

Remember this from now until Nov. 3

Smartest Woman On Television

From NYT:

Rachel Maddow, a woman who does not own a television set, has done something that is virtually unheard of: she has doubled the audience for a cable news channel’s 9 p.m. hour in a matter of days.
More important for her bosses at MSNBC is that “The Rachel Maddow Show,” her left-leaning news and commentary program, has averaged a higher rating among 25- to 54-year-olds than “Larry King Live” on CNN for 13 of the 25 nights she has been host. While the average total audience of her program remains slightly smaller than that of Mr. King’s, Ms. Maddow, 35, has made MSNBC competitive in that time slot for the first time in a decade. The channel at that hour has an average viewership of 1.7 million since she started on Sept. 8, compared with 800,000 before.

Did You Know?

In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote after trailing by seven points in the final days of the race. In 1980, Reagan was eight points down in the polls in late October and came back to win. Races can shift—fast!

That was part of a plea from MoveOn to get involved. They need help to keep people from getting complacent.
They want you to volunteer at your local Obama or Dem headquarters. Me, I plan to sign up this week to do GOTV phone work in battleground states. You can sign up at the top right. At worst, donate some more, some of it will likely go towards crucial down-ticket races, like Gov. Gregoire's squeaker in our Washington state. Can't believe the Seattle Times recommended Rossi today, while four other newspapers that were for Rossi four years ago came over to Gregoire.

Here's the full MoveOn email:

Dear MoveOn member,
Across the country, folks like you have been working hard to talk to voters about Barack Obama. Thanks so much for all you've been doing!

Here's one more simple thing you can do right now—it takes just 30 seconds. Do you know Obama supporters who might be watching the news and starting to think that this election's in the bag? That Obama's got this wrapped up?

If so, please forward them the below Top 5 list of reasons Obama supporters can't rest easy. Let's spread this far and wide, and make sure folks don't let up, now that the finish line is in sight!

TOP 5 REASONS OBAMA SUPPORTERS CAN'T REST EASY


1. The polls may be wrong. This is an unprecedented election. No one knows how racism may affect what voters tell pollsters—or what they do in the voting booth. And the polls are narrowing anyway. In the last few days, John McCain has gained ground in most national polls, as his campaign has gone even more negative.

2. Dirty tricks. Republicans are already illegally purging voters from the rolls in some states. They're whipping up hysteria over ACORN to justify more challenges to new voters. Misleading flyers about the voting process have started appearing in black neighborhoods. And of course, many counties still use unsecure voting machines.

3. October surprise. In politics, 15 days is a long time. The next McCain smear could dominate the news for a week. There could be a crisis with Iran, or Bin Laden could release another tape, or worse.

4. Those who forget history... In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote after trailing by seven points in the final days of the race. In 1980, Reagan was eight points down in the polls in late October and came back to win. Races can shift—fast!

5. Landslide. Even with Barack Obama in the White House, passing universal health care and a new clean-energy policy is going to be hard. Insurance, drug and oil companies will fight us every step of the way. We need the kind of landslide that will give Barack a huge mandate.

If you agree that we can't rest easy, please sign up to volunteer at your local Obama office by clicking here:

http://www.moveon.org/r?r=31257&id=14522-7054484-blwZdlx&t=2

We're just 15 days away from turning the page on the Bush era—but we can't afford to take our eye off the ball. We've got to keep pushing until the very end.
By sending this email to others, encouraging them to volunteer with Obama, and signing ourselves up to volunteer for Obama, we can make a big difference together and help Obama win.

Thanks for all you do.

–Adam, Lenore, Adam G., Patrick S. and the rest of the team

Want to support our work? We're entirely funded by our 4.2 million members—no corporate contributions, no big checks from CEOs. And our tiny staff ensures that small contributions go a long way. Chip in here.

Cloris! One Of My Favorites

You've come a long way from Frau Blucher, baby.

From NYT:

Roughly an hour after performing a tango that would earn her another week on “Dancing With the Stars” last Monday, Cloris Leachman took a moment to look ahead to where her career, still-blossoming at 82, might go once her time on the ABC hit dance competition runs its course.
“I could get pregnant,” she said in an interview in her trailer, where, completely coincidentally, she insisted on changing out of her ballroom gown in front of a reporter. “I’ve got a bit of time before my next project. Maybe I’ll be on ‘American Idol.’ ”

What Voter Fraud?

Kos caught this today:

"An agreement announced today by Obama for America, the Republican National Committee, the Democratic National Committee, the Michigan Republican Party, the Michigan Democratic Party, the Macomb County Republican Party, the Macomb County Democratic Party, and plaintiffs Duane Maletski, Sharon Lopez, and Frances M. Zick protects the voting rights of foreclosure victims. The settlement acknowledges the existence of an illegal scheme by the Republicans to use mortgage foreclosure lists to deny foreclosure victims their right to vote. This settlement has the force of law behind it and ensures that Republicans cannot disenfranchise families facing foreclosure." 

On The Ground Voting Report

A really good story full of links from, of all sources, the Washington Times' political reporter.
Early voters were heckled in North Carolina and accused of "cheating." A big deal was made about voting on a Sunday.
Approx. two weeks, twelve hours to go and the latest poll has Obama up 8 points in Ohio, tied in Missouri where he drew crowds of 100k and 75k over the weekend.
Landslide, I tells yah.

The Widows Of Eastwick

Yeah, Updike really did write a sequel. I loved the Witches of Eastwick, but it was light entertainment.

Ms. Kakutani doesn't think much of the new one, but offers a striking quote for someone of my gemeration:

"deeper into the engulfing indifference that readies us for death.”

Yipes, how did he know?

Update: Frequent commenter adds a friend's observation:
As a friend of mine, generally known as the Village Pessimist, would put it: Life's a bitch, and then you die. And when you're buried you find your grave is half-full of rain water.And then soon afterwards your tombstone falls over"

Forgive the erratic appearance of this post, blogger was being difficult.

Sarah Palin

Opened SNL and stayed around for the whole thing. She did great, but so did the writers.

Colin Powell Endorses Obama

Everyone expected this after learning he was scheduled for Meet the Press today.
It's always about winning the news cycle.
And while O is still well ahead in the polls, everyone is also worried about the increasing nastiness from Camp McSline, something which Powell seems uniquely qualified to speak out loud and often on.