Sunday, October 3, 2010

Can Democrats Keep Their House Majority?

NYT analysis suggests things are more fluid than R's had planned.
Republican strategists estimated that only half of the 39 seats they need to win control of the House were definitively in hand.

Wait a minute, Nate Silver's crunching numbers.
The most likely number of Republican pickups is in the range of about 45 seats — although significantly larger or smaller gains remain possible. The model does not expect a clean sweep: Democrats are favorites in 4 seats currently held by Republicans. But Republicans are favorites in exactly 50 Democratic-held seats, according to the model, which would be enough to give them control of the House.
But as long as you're at the NYT site, you might as well read Gail Collins' take. She's more fun.
Colorado voters, in the fun-loving spirit that has filled so many Republican primaries this season, gave the gubernatorial nomination to a newcomer named Dan Maes, who had already been hit with one of the largest campaign finance violation fines in state history for claiming more than $40,000 in mileage reimbursements — which would suggest that he spent the last year driving the equivalent of more than a third of the way to the moon.

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