Wednesday, May 7, 2008

The Math: Post-Tuesday

There are six state primaries left with 217 delegates at stake.
And there are 270 uncommitted superdelegates.
Total, 487.
Total needed: 2024.5 (.5, heh)
Obama needs: 184.5 (.5, heh)
Clinton needs: 341

You see, she could win every delegate in every state and still not make the math work.
But, of course, they'll split each state. In some, West Virginia, Kentucky, she'll get more. In others, Oregon, whatever, he will.
So it comes down to the superdels, just like everyone has been saying from almost the beginning.
Obama's campaign thinks he'll be the nominee shortly after May 20, two weeks from yesterday.

Thomas Edsall has a good story on Huffpo today.
More math:

Conversely, the significance of Clinton's victory in Indiana was undermined by indications that a statistically significant number of Republicans, perhaps as many as 7 percent of all the votes cast, were following the suggestion of conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh to cast ballots for her in the Democratic primary.

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