Tuesday, May 6, 2008

White Knuckle Primary Day

I actually declared a temporary hiatus following the Pennsylvania primary, thinking I just couldn't take it anymore. But I couldn't stay away even a week.

A few days ago, Hillary said today's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana could be game-changing, suggesting her campaign knew something, something good, no one else did from their own internal polling.
Most polls have consistently shown the race tightening in N.C., with Obama winning by as little as 5 points, while Clinton has consistently led in Indiana by less than 10 points. Such an outcome changes nothing and the race goes on to June 3, the day of the last primary.
Then this morning, the Zogby two-day tracking poll has Obama up by 15 points in N.C. and with half a chance at taking Indiana by a slim margin, or losing by a slim margin.
Such an outcome is expected to bring the superdelegates out of the woodwork for Obama and possibly even convince Clinton to throw it in before the next primaries. Even though she's supposed to win big in both West Virginia and Kentucky, it's just not going to be enough.
In fact, everyone who does the numbers including "independent analysts" say it's already not enough.
(Obama's up by 12 points in upcoming Oregon, can't remember who's got the edge in the other Western state. Can't even remember whether it's Montana or Wyoming. Wyoming, I think.)

Keith Olberman is usually a little too much for me even though he's on my side, but this bit is kinda funny.

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