Saturday, August 9, 2008

Russia, Georgia, Zbiggy, et al

I noted with little interest that Russia is attacking Georgia. Like most Americans, I figured it seems to have nothing to do with me. But just to be on the safe side, I read Jerome A Paris's diary at Kos today and then down into the comments.
I now know more than I thought I needed to and it turns out I need to know a lot more. Still, if you're interested in a short synopsis, one commenter did that:

i know nothing about this region other than what I have googled last night and this morning, and diaries I have read including this very helpful one.
so feel free to correct me if I am totally off base.
There is a pipeline that runs from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea through Azerbaijan and Georgia.  The pipeline was created by agreement of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and a group called SOCAR.  Despite the fact that SOCAR stands for "State Oil Company of Azerbaijan", SOCAR is actually made up of a consortium of oil companies including names we all know:  Exxon/Mobil, Chevron, BP, Amoco, and Montcrief.  Also involved is LUKOIL, the largest oil company in Russia.
The middle of the pipeline passes near the southern border of the area known as South Ossetia.  S.O. is a breakaway province that wants to be part of Russia instead of Georgia.  The South Ossetians broke away in the 90s and Russia recognized them and gave them dual citizenship.
The government of Georgia, fed up with breakway provinces, is trying to bring S.O. back into the fold.  A successful breakaway by S.O. would encourage the other separatist province, Abkhazia, on the northern border of Georgia on the Black Sea, to assert its independence as well. This would destablize Georgia and make it even more vulnerable.
As Jerome said, the US has a base near the pipeline that would make an attack on the pipeline an attack against the US.  The US would like for Georgia to be a member of NATO, further cementing its status as an independent country, which would also make an attack against Georgia by Russia an attack against all of NATO.  Russia's hidden in plain sight goal is to get all of Georgia back, including the pipeline and its very valuable connection between the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, but Russia cannot attack Georgia directly.  So instead Russia is encouraging separatist movements in the North and applauding Kurdish violence in the South and hoping Georgia will fall apart on its own so that Russia can swoop in and pick up the pieces.  In the short term, they are at least trying to get control of South Ossetia which will put the Russian border a lot closer to the pipeline.
Have I pretty much got it?

  •  Pretty Much (1+ / 0-)


    Recommended by:
    rhutcheson
    don't forget
    a. That area is Russia's back yard. Stalin was born from that area.
    b. The "rose" revolution, is pretty much another neocon regime change effort.
    c. don't forget to google (google news) Israel-georgia. You'd be surprised.
    ---
    Same BS different days. The neocon decides to poke the bears eyes and the bear is kicking back.

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