Sunday, July 6, 2008

Gas Prices: 'It Didn't Have To Be This Way'

One analysis on today's NYT:
According to energy policy experts, it was in the late 1980s and early 1990s — during the administrations of President George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton — that things began to go wrong. Before that point, the country reaped the benefits of the first fuel-economy standards, passed in 1975, known as corporate average fuel economy, or CAFE. Between 1974 and 1989, the efficiency of a typical car sold in the United States almost doubled, to 27.5 miles per gallon from 13.8. LARGELY as a result, oil consumption in 1990 totaled 16.9 million barrels, basically on a par with the 17 million barrels consumed in 1980, even as the economy grew substantially. Oil prices were in the middle of a long downward slide that would take them from well above $30 a barrel in 1980 to a low of just under $10 in late 1998 and early 1999, interrupted only by brief spike in 1990 after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.
Wait, it's Jesse Helms' and Carl Levin's fault that I paid $4.41 a gallon yesterday? At Costco, mind you. And John Dingell and Newt Gingrich? I like Carl, always peering over those glasses way down on his nose. And I like Dingell. How could they? Detroit, honey, Detroit. And Slade Gorton was one of the good guys. Who knew? The Dutch pay $10 a gallon for gas, more than half of it taxes. But Newt still contends Americans would never accept an attempt to control consumption with heavy taxes. No-o-o, the R's want to open up new drilling fields and so far 70 percent of Americans think they're right, according to polls, despite:
A recent study by the federal government’s Energy Information Administration estimated that under the best-case scenario opening up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would reduce prices by $1.44 a barrel by 2027. Drilling in broader swaths off the continental United States wouldn’t affect prices until 2030.
It's mostly supply and demand (what's sitting in your driveway?), the article says, although it quotes one economist who attributes about 20 percent to the falling dollar. It dismisses speculation, which is unregulated, without examination. But I watched that panel of experts testify a couple weeks ago, and they convinced me. The NYT writer quotes a couple energy company people also dismissing speculation, but there was one, from Exxon, I think, who agreed that speculation played a big role. At the time, they were saying as much as 25 percent. Krugman doesn't buy the speculation argument either and has the numbers to prove his case, basically that there isn't enough hoarding going on to indicate speculation. Nobody seems to be blaming the oil companies except Maria Cantwell. So, okay, it's all our fault. Kind of reminds me of the JFK assassination, when some TV newsman like Howard K. Smith said we were all to blame. Blame everybody, then nobody's accountable.

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